Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model

Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during winter. Temperature drops below the hardiness level may cause frost damage. Increased climate variability under global and regional warming might lead to more severe frost damage events, with consequences for tree individuals, populations and ecosystems. We assessed the potential future impacts of changing frost regimes on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) in Sweden. A cold hardiness and frost damage model were incorporated within a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS. The frost tolerance of Norway spruce was calculated based on daily mean temperature fluctuations, corresponding to time and temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjustments. The severity of frost damage was calculated as a growth-reducing factor when the minimum temperature was below the frost tolerance. The hardiness model was linked to the ecosystem model by reducing needle biomass and thereby growth according to the calculated severity of frost damage. A sensitivity analysis of the hardiness model revealed that the severity of frost events was significantly altered by variations in the hardening rate and dehardening rate during current climate conditions. The modelled occurrence and intensity of frost events was related to observed crown defoliation, indicating that 6-12% of the needle loss could be attributed to frost damage. When driving the combined ecosystem-hardiness model with future climate from a regional climate model (RCM), the results suggest a decreasing number and strength of extreme frost events particularly in northern Sweden and strongly increasing productivity for Norway spruce by the end of the 21st century as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, according to the model, frost damage might decrease the potential productivity by as much as 25% early in the century.     

交替冻融对东北典型土壤腐殖质的影响

以受季节性冻融过程影响显著的东北地区的黑土、暗棕壤和水稻土为例,采用实验室模拟的方法,研究交替冻融循环过程（分别在-20℃和20℃下处理）对土壤腐殖质的影响。研究表明：交替冻融后,黑土和暗棕壤松结态腐殖质质量分数分别增加了39%和28%,HA/FA分别上升了45%和35%;水稻土松结态腐殖质质量分数和HA/FA分别下降了18%和31%。三维荧光结果进一步验证,黑土、暗棕壤在交替冻融中土壤芳香化程度增高,HA/FA上升,而水稻土则相反。黑土和暗棕壤松结态腐殖质和HA/FA升高,主要是微生物分解作用和土壤大团聚体破坏等原因造成,水稻土松结态腐殖质和HA/FA降低,主要是水稻土的缺氧环境造成。     

A trait-based approach for downscaling complexity in plankton ecosystem models

Although predator–prey cycles can be easily predicted with mathematical models it is only since recently that oscillations observed in a chemostat predator–prey (rotifer–algal) experiment offer an interesting workbench for testing model soundness. These new observations have highlighted the limitations of the conventional modelling approach in correctly reproducing some unexpected characteristics of the cycles. Simulations are improved when changes in algal community structure, resulting from natural selection operating on an assemblage of algal clones differing in competitive ability and defence against rotifer predation, is considered in multi-prey models. This approach, however, leads to extra complexity in terms of state variables and parameters. We show here that multi-prey models with one predator can be effectively approximated with a simpler (only a few differential equations) model derived in the context of adaptive dynamics and obtained with a moment-based approximation. The moment-based approximation has been already discussed in the literature but mostly in a theoretical context, therefore we focus on the strength of this approach in downscaling model complexity by relating it to the chemostat predator–prey experiment. Being based on mechanistic concepts, our modelling framework can be applied to any community of competing species for which a trade-off between competitive ability and resistance to predators can be appropriately defined. We suggest that this approach can be of great benefit for reducing complexity in biogeochemical modelling studies at the basin or global ocean scale.     

Are savannas patch-dynamic systems? A landscape model

Savannas are ecosystems characterized by the coexistence of woody species (trees and bushes) and grasses. Given that savanna characteristics are mainly formed from competition, herbivory, fire, woodcutting, and patchy soil and precipitation characteristics, we propose a spatially explicit model to examine the effects of the above-mentioned parameters on savanna vegetation dynamics in space and time. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of the above-mentioned parameters on tree–bush–grass ratios, as well as the degrees of aggregation of tree–bush–grass biomass. We parameterized our model for an arid savanna with shallow soil depth as well as a mesic one with generally deeper and more variable soil depths. Our model was able to reproduce savanna vegetation characteristics for periods of time over 2000 years with daily updated time steps. According to our results, tree biomass was higher than bush biomass in the arid savanna but bush biomass exceeded tree and grass biomass in the simulated mesic savanna. Woody biomass increased in our simulations when the soil's porosity values were increased (mesic savanna), in combination with higher precipitation. Savanna vegetation varied from open savanna to woodland and back to open savanna again. Vegetation cycles varied over ∼300-year cycles in the arid and ∼220-year cycles in the mesic-simulated savanna. Autocorrelation values indicated that there are both temporal and spatial vegetation cycles. Our model indicated cycling savanna vegetation at the landscape scale, cycles in cells, and patchiness, i.e. patch dynamics.     

Energy and exergy analysis of a combined Brayton/Brayton power cycle with humidification

ABSTRACT

First and second law approaches have been used to analyze the performance of a humidified Brayton/Brayton power cycle. The energy efficiency and exergy destruction rates consistently improved when the combustion temperature was increased. Both performance indicators improved, reached an optimum, and then deteriorated when the topping cycle pressure ratio increased, while their sensitivity to the bottoming cycle pressure ratio depended on the humidification rate used at the bottoming cycle. Upon increasing the mass flowrate of air through the bottoming cycle, the energy efficiency of the power cycle increased linearly, while the irreversibility generation had a non-monotonic variation. In all cases, a higher degree of humidification always resulted in greater first and second law performances.     

化学腐蚀-冻融条件下加载岩石能量演化规律及耗散模型研究*

为研究在化学腐蚀和冻融循环复合作用下岩石的能量演化规律,以大理岩为研究对象,分析冻融腐蚀岩样能量演化过程,建立与强度衰减参数、pH、冻融次数相关的能量耗散模型,以期为长期服役岩石力学工程安全稳定性评价提供理论支持。研究结果表明:化学腐蚀冻融复合作用下,腐蚀孔隙为水增加了入渗通道,冻胀裂隙同时也为腐蚀溶液提供了贯穿的通道,加剧了岩石内部结构的崩解与裂隙扩展贯通;相同冻融循环次数下,HNO3溶液中的腐蚀岩石弹性模量降幅最高,NaCl溶液次之,NaOH溶液最低;腐蚀岩石弹性应变能的吸收和耗散能的释放,随着冻融循环次数的增大而减小;建立的能量耗散模型对于岩石峰后阶段耗散能具有较高的准确性,能较好地模拟岩石峰后能量转化特征。     

Metal prices and the business cycle

Metal price fluctuations have recently been of interest not only because of their cyclical volatility but also of their interaction with business cycles. A related issue is whether metal prices move together sufficiently to collectively reflect macroeconomic influences. Correlation or the tendency for prices to move together has been termed “comovement”, where the commonality in prices reflects the tendency of commodity markets to respond to common business cycle and trend factors. Metal prices are known to respond to macroeconomic influences and the latter might well explain the common factor which causes them to move together. Our goal is to provide an estimate of the common factor in metal prices and to relate this factor to important macroeconomic influences. The prices we study are for aluminum, copper, tin, lead and zinc; the macroeconomic variables include industrial production, consumer prices, interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. Our results confirm that the common factor in metal prices can be related to such macroeconomic influences.     

Evaluation method of automobile recycling systems for Asia considering international material cycles: application to Japan and Thailand

To examine an appropriate recycling system for end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) from Japan in the context of Asia, an Asian international automobile recycling input-output (AI-ARIO) analysis is presented. The AI-ARIO analysis spatially expands the existing ARIO analysis within the framework of the waste input-output (WIO) analysis developed by Nakamura et al., which considers the interdependence between the flow of goods and wastes in a country. This analysis focuses on the local and global cycles for ELVs in Asia and can evaluate the environmental and economic effects of alternative recycling systems. We estimated the AI-ARIO table for Japan and Thailand and applied it to scenario analyses covering the restriction of ELV trade between the two countries, the introduction of new recycling techniques in Thailand, and centralized treatment in Japan. We verified the applicability and effectiveness of the AI-ARIO analysis through the scenario analyses.     

Population cycles of the bank vole in the range optimum

Patterns of seasonal and long-term dynamics of the size and structure of the bank vole population were studied in the European subtaiga subzone, the optimum of the species range. The dynamics of this population proved to undergo complex fluctuations with cyclic components, which have periods of one year and about three years. The one-year fluctuations of the population size and structure are accounted for by animal adaptation to seasonal changes in environmental factors. The fluctuations with the three-year quasi-period are determined by intrapopulation density-dependent mechanisms.     

A geostatistical approach for mapping thematic classification accuracy and evaluating the impact of inaccurate spatial data on ecological model predictions

Spatial information in the form of geographical information system coverages and remotely sensed imagery is increasingly used in ecological modeling. Examples include maps of land cover type from which ecologically relevant properties, such as biomass or leaf area index, are derived. Spatial information, however, is not error-free: acquisition and processing errors, as well as the complexity of the physical processes involved, make remotely sensed data imperfect measurements of ecological attributes. It is therefore important to first assess the accuracy of the spatial information being used and then evaluate the impact of such inaccurate information on ecological model predictions. In this paper, the role of geostatistics for mapping thematic classification accuracy through integration of abundant image-derived (soft) and sparse higher accuracy (hard) class labels is presented. Such assessment leads to local indices of map quality, which can be used for guiding additional ground surveys. Stochastic simulation is proposed for generating multiple alternative realizations (maps) of the spatial distribution of the higher accuracy class labels over the study area. All simulated realizations are consistent with the available pieces of information (hard and soft labels) up to their validated level of accuracy. The simulated alternative class label representations can be used for assessing joint spatial accuracy, i.e., classification accuracy regarding entire spatial features read from the thematic map. Such realizations can also serve as input parameters to spatially explicit ecological models; the resulting distribution of ecological responses provides a model of uncertainty regarding the ecological model prediction. A case study illustrates the generation of alternative land cover maps for a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) subscene, and the subsequent construction of local map quality indices. Simulated land cover maps are then input into a biogeochemical model for assessing uncertainty regarding net primary production (NPP).